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(Warning: super speculative, feel free to ignore) As Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”. Unfortunately predicting is hard, and unsurprisingly people look for the Magic Trick™ that can resolve all the uncertainty. Whether it’s recruiting, investing, system design, finding your soulmate, or anything else, there’s always an alleged shortcut. In the famous book Expert Political Judgment a huge amount of forecasts about the future are tracked over a long ti...