What COVID did to our forecasting models (and what we built to handle the next shock)

215 · Airbnb · March 24, 2026, 5:34 p.m.
Summary
The blog post discusses how Airbnb redesigned its forecasting models to effectively handle the disruptions caused by COVID-19. The author shares insights on the challenges faced due to changes in booking patterns, the need for separating the timing of bookings from the volume of bookings, and introduces the new B-DARMA model designed for compositional time series that can adapt to structural shifts. The post emphasizes that the pandemic led to persistent changes in guest behavior that necessitate ongoing adaptation of forecasting methodologies.