The Anatomy of a Decentralized Prediction Market: Notes from the Polymarket Order Book

· Philipp D. Dubach · May 2, 2026, 9:46 a.m.
Summary
The blog post details extensive research on Polymarket's order-book microstructure, addressing empirical findings and measurement techniques for decentralized prediction markets. It critiques existing literature on prediction markets, focusing on aspects like trade direction inferences, liquidity provision, and the importance of on-chain data. The findings suggest that Polymarket operates differently from traditional prediction markets, providing insights into its liquidity dynamics and broader implications for decentralized finance.
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