Reducing experiment duration with predicted control variates

313 · Etsy, Inc. · Nov. 25, 2025, 5:08 p.m.
Summary
The blog post discusses how Etsy has improved its experimentation process through two variance reduction techniques known as CUPED and CUPAC. CUPED helps reduce experiment duration by using historical data for more accurate results, while CUPAC enhances this by employing a machine learning model for better predictions. The implementation of both methods has successfully shortened average experiment duration significantly, allowing teams at Etsy to run more experiments and improve the platform more efficiently.