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In many games, different items or events have an associated chance to appear. Often these chances are unknown to the players. In this post, we will try to estimate the chance of getting a Mysterious Stranger in Hearthstone Mercenaries from Avalanchan on normal. Instead of estimating the probability of the Mysterious Stranger using frequentist inference as many of us might have learned in high school, we will try to use Bayesian inference. At the core of Bayesian inference is Bayes’ theorem: \[P...